The yellow polls include cell phones, the gray polls do not. Zogby is a fucking joke, as is Fox News. The press is just trying to pretend like it's really close, but it's not. They want people to watch their news shows through Tuesday night. Obama has a massive lead in most early voting states, so McCain is already in the hole. Big time.
Obama will win New Mexico, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa.
There are five states that are considered "toss ups:" Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Nevada.
To win the election, Obama will just need one of these scenarios.
1. Win Pennsylvania and ANY ONE of Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, or Nevada*Colorado is one of those states where Obama has a huge lead in early voting, so it's probably gone. But the Republican Secretary of State has tossed over a million people off the voter rolls, so that could be a problem on election day.
2. Win Ohio and EITHER Colorado OR Virginia.
3. Win Colorado AND Virginia AND Nevada.
There is not one poll showing Obama behind in Pennsylvania. Not one. And it's always been a blue state. Huge union state.
Only one poll out of twenty eight has Obama losing in Virginia. One out of twenty eight. The average has Obama up by 5 points.
He's up by an average of 5 points in Nevada, as well. Only two pollsters have him behind. Seventeen have him ahead.
Oh, and the average pollster has Obama up by a larger margin that Reagan's landslide in 1984.
Basically, what I'm saying is that worrying is for assholes.