Oct 1, 2008

This Fucker Is Pretty Much Over

When you get to October, the guy ahead usually wins.
Presently, Obama holds a 5.6% margin over McCain in the Pollster.com trend. Thus, even if you allocated every undecided voter to McCain, it still wouldn’t be enough for him to overtake Obama (though it would certainly make for a very close race). Of course, it is highly unlikely that all of the undecideds will go for McCain, so what about the second option–changing the minds of Obama voters? It turns out that in recent elections, it has been fairly difficult to change peoples’ minds in October.
In 1980, 2000, and 2004, there was virtually no movement in the polls during the final month of the campaign. In 1988, Bush added a little to his lead in October and in 1996 Dole gained some modest ground on Clinton, but in neither case did the October gains make a difference in the outcome. In 1992, Bush gained significantly on Clinton in October, but attracting supporters from the third party candidacy of Perot may have accounted for some of those gains. In any event, Bush still fell short.
Barely alive McCain is in a lot of trouble. This is apparently the time when votes are "cemented," which means they are shot and thrown into the ocean. And that is weird.

No comments: